He crown not only reversed the daily life, as we know it; He was lowered to the head and global politics. I have been working to understand what it means in geopolitics over the crown immediate crisis in. I As such, I have revisited our top risks in 2020 that we published in January and have them (the first time updated to our history that we have the crown ever) done with the possible impact on each of them. Here’s how: 1. Rigged! Who governs the United States? In January, we were the consequences of the impeachment process more politicized history, Fanning concerned about the legitimacy of the upcoming elections in the vicinity of the safety of foreign intervention and the presidential candidates gave flames conspiracy theory. It ‘was a potent mix of factors that would be about half of the country feel they backed elections were in their “stolen” when their preferred candidate did not win. All that is true … and now Crown opens a brand new way to political accusations and slander to complicate matters as the physical act of going to the polls. The United States has never experienced a national mail-level vote and national electronic voting and in a political context, as this polarized, even the smallest hiccup for people much power does each election result denounce they do not like to do. Verdict: Crown increases this risk. 2. The Great Decoupling In January, it marked that as bad as the tech-war between the United States and China has the potential to become, it was even worse to go beyond this split between China and the United States would be in other areas economic pour. Crown has accelerated this timeline; Manufacturing and service sectors have already been forced to begin to reorganize supply chains and, where employees their commitment in China. These movements, for now, are limited in time, but the longer maintains the current global health crisis, the more companies will be forced to make this move to examine permanently the growing gap between the US and China. Verdict: Crown significantly increased this risk. 3. Connect USA / China in this-we have intensified the point a few months ago as an economic tug of war between the United States and China, the battle between the two would run only economic superpower in a wider influence and values and fighting in collaboration with national security features. This was also accelerated by the crown, the US president Donald Trump and members of his party than they started out as “the Wuhan virus” and “Chinese virus.” China was now permeates the story is that the crown was bioengineered in a US military laboratory. Both countries have leaders who take great care as their answer to the crown both the public and national and international who place blame each other that contain the virus in any way does not help to be seen, but it helps distract the political consequences. This means that many more US-China unrest in the future. Verdict: Crown significantly increased this risk. 4. MNC was not easy rare for the recovery of relations between the public and private sectors. But as the world’s problems began to mount and continue to fight the government, people to multinationals started looking (MNU) to help address many of the problems that have been plaguing the communities in which they operate these multinationals and extract profit . Before the crown we expected that 2020 will be a year when MNU requires more action on social issues such as climate change and the fight against poverty would face, all while turning shareholders fought in a global economic slowdown. The global economic downturn remains a major challenge for them since the Crown and new concerns in the supply chain, but do not for the moment apart from the multinationals to governments to account other concerns; What’s more, the crown brings challenges provide opportunities for tech and pharmaceutical companies to step up and help the most normal people can live their lives in these difficult times. Call it a wash. Verdict: Crown either increased or significantly decreased the risk. 5. India Gets Modi-fied We were clearly exaggerated nationalism round of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a Hindu, when we wrote our initial report in January, a political orientation that significant for the Indian company has had an impact, as well as the progress of the country towards economic reforms. We will continue to be interested … but so far India has managed to handle very well the crown outbreak. There are no guarantees that the case for the future will be, especially as the country three times more crowded China in terms of population density and has nowhere near the same kind of health and policy responsiveness such as China. And when a tear outbreak Crown through India, could push the country into even-more social upheavals. Not well. Verdict: Crown increases this risk. 6. geopolitical Europe before Corona made the EU-under new management with the recent arrival of the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, was always ready to take a more assertive approach is its relations with China and the United States. This would produce through regulation improved technology, stricter application / use of trade rules and tariffs, as well as greater military cooperation between the other States of the European bloc members. Of course, the arrival of Corona on European shores is now radically changed orienteering instead of fighting the United States and China in the geopolitical sphere, Brussels is now fighting focused Corona home. If the case is so successful, it may well your eyes on the United States and China; if this is not the case, Europe can have big problems to your hands, especially if it is forced to try to save the sick economy block with the monetary policy options are dwindling rapidly. Verdict: Crown either increased or significantly decreased the risk. 7. vs. Politics Economics of climate change Climate change has always started from the political fringe into the political move; Force in 2020 was a clash between activists, governments and businesses a year to tackle climate change momentum. And while climate change even the largest physical and existential threat, the world is, with the immediacy addressed the issue have been displaced due to the current crisis of the crown. This is good news for the fight against climate change that would come in 2020; This is bad news for fighting climate change a total that still needs had to be in front of the line. Verdict: coronavirus significantly reduces the risk (for now). 8. Policy Shia Growing US Misguided towards the Shiite-run countries in the Middle East (Iran, Iraq, Syria), was pushing the region towards instability, I warned in January. However, despite the rhetoric, neither the US nor Iran wanted a real military confrontation (the murder Soleimani not resist). Now, both the US and Iran fighting for coping with their domestic outbreaks of Corona, which means that both parties to go even less incentives each other in the war. although at the same time a significant crown outbreak in Iraq and Syria real blows to the two countries could deal struggling to pick up the pieces and stabilize, US policy was not that they help, in the first place. Conclusion: While the Crown risks of US policy toward Iran will increase from there to Syria and Iraq. 9. The discontent in Latin America was first crown in political crisis, better with a new creation of public services of the middle class and less corruption by their leaders and do not get. As of this writing, Latin America does not hit hard by the Crown as Asia and Europe, but that could be just a matter of time. In conjunction with the recent fall in oil prices following the decision of Russia and Saudi Arabia to join in oil producing countries, such as Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Mexico brace need for a few weeks before a difficult leaders of the oil price war; as well as the rest of Latin America, the health system and the underlying infrastructure will be tested like never before in the coming weeks and months … all for a population already at the edge watches. Verdict: Crown significantly increased this risk. 10. Turkey, such as Latin America, Turkey has yet to be as hard as coronavirus affected than other countries of the world. But there is no guarantee that it will last, and the president turkish Recep Tayyip Erdogan has acted in an unpredictable track record, as you hear the political and economic pressure is bearing down on him. This pressure has been high profile given to withdraw from his government AKP, a softening of the Turkish economy and costly military adventurism in Syria assembly that has seriously load Russia relations between Turkey and the European Union is. Add in the upcoming coronavirus strain, and it is possible, Erdogan lashes out in a new and more unpredictable as he fights to maintain both the strength and popularity. Verdict: Crown increases this risk. * All this, and there are always changing even in the first days of life as we know Crown. Consider monitoring developments, useful for helping this means crown reform of the financial markets for the future. Photo copyright Wei Liang China News Service / Getty Images
Top geopolitical risks in 2020: Coronavirus update
