What can we prevent a global depression COVID-19

A few months in, it is still difficult, the size and scope COVID-19 to capture the overall impact. A third of the world population is under some sort of “closure”. More than 200 countries are affected, and the number of new cases and deaths in many places are still growing exponentially. All the while, a second crisis, in the form of an economic recession is underway. We all want to get out of this crisis behind, as soon as possible. But as eager as we are to launch social and economic life back to do that, we need to focus on public health. That comes with a huge cost, but it’s better than the alternative. Government and industry collaboration, based on the latest scientific evidence is our best chance to avoid a recession in the short term hopes to be a global depression. have as governments and companies that initiatives begin prudent “turned the corner”, parties can access the social and economic life is back on track, also monitored by public health officials, companies have to make their own competitive interests temporarily left behind, and work together to ensure that the most effective vaccine can be determined as quickly as possible and start the necessary large-scale production as quickly as possible can. And ‘the only real way out of this crisis. Let start, what is known today by the medical recognition. While we are not all made of 19-COVID know, of course, is an extraordinary risk to global public health for at least another year, and possibly much longer, because they represent three main reasons. First, this novel corona is extremely contagious. Second, the 19-COVID disease is caused, it is very difficult. And thirdly – and this is crucial – we have no immunity “background” in the population and no vaccine does not have. Let us first consider its infectivity. Each infected with this new virus infects on average between two and three people, and no one has immunity to this new virus. In a few weeks, this virus has infected millions (official number of cases still under 2 million Euros, but that no official is probably at least five times and counting). And in the coming months, COVID-19 at risk most of the world’s population. This means that we are facing an epidemic scale, and there is no link out of it. This virus over the past 100 years is only comparable to the Spanish flu of 1918 that killed more than two years, about 50 million people and were followed by an economic depression 1920-1921. Influenza is a highly contagious and virulent viruses as well, on which the world’s population, in general, had no immunity. There will be whether the disaster is repeated, facing the prospect of millions of deaths and a long depression. Second, we now know that the death rate of confirmed cases COVID-19 in the order of 5 percent. The mortality rate in all cases (including unrecognized) is still unknown, but it is very likely that at least 1 percent. These percentages are very serious “Spanish flu” that at least 10 to 50 times higher than for seasonal influenza, and comparable to the infamous All epidemiological parameters (infectivity, virulence, and the lack of immunity) are similar between the Spanish flu and COVID- 19 As a result, hospitals are now inundated with patients around the world. From New York to Tokyo and from Barcelona to Tehran, thousands already dying each day, which can only be described as an outstanding global health emergency: all employees “Frontline” testify health care around the world, they give have ever seen. And thirdly, and this is made more problematic: There is no vaccine, and not even a very effective treatment. A flu shot is useless against COVID like most other existing drugs are tested. Relations on (partially) the efficacy of chloroquine or anti-HIV drugs need to be confirmed. That leaves us with the prospect of Forten infections and death, at least until the end of 2020. If this is not enough of a dramatic perspective was the view that the impact of the virus have been felt in the developed world usually been the “North global”. The final death toll and much of their socio-economic impact will be, however, determined by their distribution and mortality in low and middle income countries, in the “southern hemisphere”, count the billions of people who are like now only to ‘ start of the pandemic, a sign of hope is that the population is much younger and more (which increase the risk of serious disease in the north) is less regard to cardiovascular and other comorbidities. But the people of the South have a greater burden of the “spiral” infections and less access to food and enough medical services quality. What happens in the arms of “downtown” areas of New York City, it is likely to include some of what will happen soon in the South, and the picture looks rather bleak. Knowing that everything that social health scenarios, economic and public that should reasonably plan and what is the solution? In the absence of a vaccine, this pandemic will only stop when a large part of the population acquired immunity after infection. And ‘the famous flock concept of “immunity”. It could be argued (as did the U.K. for a while ‘) that allow us that, as soon as possible to happen. The problem with this strategy is what we witness today in New York: “natural diffusion” is installed first herd immunity, you have a very rapid exponential So many people get the same sick, health care desperately need the system health simply hangs choke and many (hundreds of thousands), exacerbating social and political tensions. We are better then keep varying degrees of current containment measures: do not kill the virus or epidemic very soon end, because this is no vaccine is not possible. But the epidemic to slow down the opportunity to give enough our health systems to cope with down: they have serious respiratory problems with patients for oxygen support and rescue breathing ability of their immune system to overcome the infection . We are able to herd immunity, but only very slowly. We are pleased with the great question that must be left, we answer: How long the block must be maintained and when and how we communicated gradually? In the end we have to start again the economy, enable and prevent a second outbreak of psychological or social problems, avoiding a new wave of the epidemic. China, Korea, Germany and Austria is already carefully planning reboots or re-start of the social and economic life parts. But they must do so in a very cautious, led by experts in public health. Otherwise, the problems could affect the financial health and mental comparable because public health crisis. can prevent two complementary strategies further epidemic growth are rolled out, the various governments allow to make decisions, restart as social life gradually: the first serological tests, that is, the search for COVID-specific antibodies in the general population. This way, you can monitor what fraction of the population was in contact with the virus and potentially immune. The second is to develop a reliable “rapid antigen test” to diagnose carry the virus quickly around those (no or minimal symptoms) and install “contact tracing” of the App technology to quickly identify contacts of infected individuals who impede quarantine was that a further spread. For governments and corporations, both may combine their best chance to run the economy again. What aspects you start, opening of schools, workplaces, shops and restaurants, a country for country selection should. But once the best practices now clear that countries should be prepared to learn together and coordinate. We can only come out together from this crisis. If we help each other, fail, we risk a serious relapse, to make the recipe for a crisis into depression. Ultimately, it should be clear: the only long-term strategy to eradicate this virus is a COVID drugs and / or vaccine. This type of development requires that at least a few dozen candidates that work very well in vitro and in animal models. And it usually takes a number of years, or carry two on the market. Against this knowledge we should not plan for economic and social recovery, in a year, just from hope. Of course we lucky that an existing, already approved drug may also act against this virus, or an effective drug COVID could prevent mortality and promote the recovery of infected patients. The first mass screening is done today, so we’ll know soon. New provisions for rapid testing of vaccine candidates are in place and a suitable candidate could emerge in a few months. But even then it will take time to produce and deliver on a global scale. However, all global actors should offer all get their support, both financial and bureaucratic, to this solution as soon as possible. This is a time for cooperation, not competition. And knowing in the absence of a vaccine widely available, it will probably take more than a year, and possibly for several years, not a few months, we have to make fundamental changes in our economic system. In order to prevent an economic collapse, governments at large roles and unprecedented needs to take to ensure the continuity of business and jobs. The public debt, which go hand in hand, must be supported by strong shoulders – companies and more able to take control individuals. The basic principle is, is that all must sign, that we are all in this for the long haul, and we must all together. We have faced serious crises before. But when we include them in the long run from want, we need to plan for the unprecedented influence and short-term cooperation. We will overcome this crisis, but only if we work together and dig in. This article is part of a series, such as the crown of our lives have changed, with insights and tips from the period 100 communities. I want more? 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