This week, Latin America has passed both the US and Europe officially day to record, the Americas, the dubious distinction of earning the last epicenter of the global pandemic to be crisis in the world, according to the World Organization Health, the new crown cases. moved the pandemic of the developed world and in the process of development of the world, which should be more people worry a lot, which is currently the case. Why it matters: Latin America is benefiting from being just a few months after the first outbreak, there is a bit ‘of time to register for the scale of the challenge to come and prepare accordingly. Of course, different countries were still a danger more serious than others, some of which, if the mortality rates and can be seen to date … but it’s not the whole story. While virtually all countries in the region social distancing measures launched to combat the health crisis and a certain amount of government stimulus to combat the economic crisis that accompanies it, ultimately, the effectiveness of both depends not only on the size and quality the adopted emergency measures, but each national context (politics, health, social and economic) in this crisis. No one should be surprised by the fact that Argentina is struggling as the economy, even before the pandemic its precarious financial situation, or that Peru has with health care after decades of insufficient investment in the infrastructure of health care (proactive despite one of the crown answers regions) for combat. Each of these countries has to tell a unique story. But this pandemic exposes and accelerates many of the problems existing political developments in the region. new middle class in Latin America, which was largely created by the last two decades fueled globalization growth and agree conveniently timed cycle of excellent raw materials promised to be already with the local inequality and corruption, and for many good years sick public services ever made. This was a big problem before the world economy began to slow, and does not disappear when we craters global economy. And if you think that an unprecedented economic compression was what this country needed serious reform to take, then you do not have the attention to Latin America, to pay for the last few decades. In the first phase of the crisis, priority was given to health considerations; but the economic Hits assemble (and lockdowns harder it is to maintain and resume a problem not only for Latin America, but in many countries in the developing world where no social distancing simply given the population density and the living conditions are adopted in poorer areas), economic considerations will begin to get the better. This ensures the region for a long time with crown, taking a blow to both countries’ capacity of health care and its economy. The same arguments at the time had about is the re-opening and life against existence, as in Latin American politics for weeks and months the US will dominate. What happens next: Let start with are the easy part of the Latin American state finances on a hit, to take both associated with decreased tax revenues with lockdowns and held responsible for much needed stimulus to keep the economy afloat resources. The central banks and Treasuries in Latin American countries simply can not support the government’s stimulus type that their European and North American counterparts can. This means more companies and income tax across the board, but that may not be enough failures and sovereign rating downgrade-we’ve begun to see this ward in Argentina; Ecuador, Brazil and Mexico are also observing countries. A wave of defaults in the markets in the developing world have a real impact on the state of the world economy, greater importance when the world economy is under duress. E ‘him a difficult economic environment for governments that legitimizes the criticism of corruption, inequality and economic growth anemic at that guided the politics of the region in recent years. And this is an immediate political crisis for the region, as the continent has many options to come in the next few years; When frustrations run too high, we can look for anti-establishment wave in another. The downside is that with so many choices on the horizon, very few painful economic reforms balance governments want to make budget; it’s just easier to give the latest requirements and spending figure it out. This is to paint in broad strokes; it is also worth seeing, how to endure some countries. In Argentina (around 15,000 cases and 500 deaths), the country have already started to make its way through the ninth sovereign credit default. The economy is going to get worse, and it must be real threat of inflation on the financial brink. Surveys of President Alberto Fernandez for now in response to strong initial health response, but that popularity will take along with the economy a shot. Just like in terms of return influence of the vice president (and former President) Cristina Kirchner on the economic talks. When it comes (about 440,000 cases and 26,750 deaths) in Brazil, the world no democratically elected leader was devastating their response crown country like Jair Bolsonaro, which is something to say. The country has two health ministers are capable seen in less than a month, and the political crisis has further fueled not Covid-19 related issues through the possibility of impeachment charges against Bolsonaro. Make a decentralized management system and governors assertive necessary measures business has eased a bit ‘, but Brazil has some real struggles for health to come, especially as the test remains relatively low and complicates efforts reopening. In Chile (about 87,000 cases and 890 deaths), social unrest, forced the first crown to offer government to write a constitution, in an attempt to appease the new protesters. The response to the significant decline from the government gave a temporary boost in the polls, but the underlying problems such as widespread inequality continue to operate in depth, and will resurface until the economic struggle drags on. And Chileans will have plenty of opportunity to express their concerns with local and national elections (and constitutional referendum) throughout the next year and a half above expected. For Colombia (some 25,500 cases and 850 deaths), president Ivan Duque is in the polls, but the boost is likely short-lived as the economy (aggravated by this premature war for oil prices) begins to wobble. tax circumstances of Colombia, the amount of government stimulus that can also be injected in the economy severely limited. In this kind of environment, it will be difficult to pass tax reforms needed and could lead to anti-establishment election in 2022 presidential elections. Ecuador (about 38,500 cases and 3,300 deaths) provides a new IMF program will get, but if you want to apply for IMF programs, you’re already in trouble. Ecuador will remain in a precarious economic and social conditions, as reflected by the recent protests. The good news is that she’s elections of February 2021 … which is also the bad news, depending on political orientation. Mexico (about 81,400 cases and 9,000 deaths), Andrés Manuel López Obrador began with great popularity, and his lackluster response to the crown (remains legitimate questions the accuracy of the official count of the government and the trial is not where it needs to be sure) reopening will certainly cost some of them, but overall remains widely popular in view of its fixation against corruption and the fresh memory of his predecessors. But the Mexican economy will be a hit this coming weeks and months you will feel the pressure and try to centralize more power to push through his policies definitely not market-friendly. Peru (142,000 cases and 4,100 deaths) President Martin Vizcarra Answer Crown admirably on the health side, but there is only so much you can do the following decades in bad health management. And while Vizcarra is not directly responsible for the limited health capabilities, now is his problem, besides the economic crisis, which typically accompanies crown. All political boost anti-establishment must be in the month of April 2021 elections. As for Venezuela (1,300 cases and 11 deaths), which has so far had a limited corona … that is about the only thing the country for them right now in progress (the sudden war in oil prices He did not do any favors, either). Nicolas Maduro is probably still stay in power, but times of uncertainty making guides grab tighter reins. The only major mistake about it: The Latin America is a uniformly bad history when it comes to the crown. Uruguay (800 cases and 22 deaths) and Cuba (2,000 cases and 82 deaths) are some of the best results when it comes to include the crown, not only with respect to Latin America, but the rest of the world. You have to give credit where credit is due. The only thing to say about it on a visit Zoom: life against debate lives … but it is true for countries developing that same argument can also be taken by the new between short-term than long-pick crisis term. As crown in developing and emerging government continues to spread, more governments are the way they are facing situations with no chance of winning. copyright Image of Nelson Almeida AFP / Getty Images
What will happen when the Epicenter pandemic Crown move to Latin America
