What happens next in Mali after coup

In some countries a pandemic and a global economic crisis is not just enough drama. A few weeks ago, members of the Malian military launched a coup in the power of the west African nation from the land of the democratically elected president, Ibrahim Boubacar Keita take. They accused Keita of corruption, nepotism, mismanagement, gross and not the people of Mali to protect them from spiking violence. The coup leaders initially wanted to stay for three years in power (like the rest of the term Keïta), may be deemed to elections and a competent civilian government agreed; At the time of the coup it seems to have the popular support of the people of Mali. The international community is another matter. Why it matters: Mali, a French-speaking country is home to nearly 20 million people, has a lot of experience when it comes to the coup; the last one, which took place in 2012, led to the choice of just Keïta ousted the following year. Tensions have been long in the land-Keïta bubbles, which comes from the south of the country, which is widely regarded as the leading ineffective, which is to create economic stability and the failed physical security, which the country desperately needs. To be honest, it is not the fault, if his was called the last coup in 2012 to just life, the resulting political instability has allowed a number of Islamist groups capture area in the north of the country, make an enemy of various ethnic militias align with each other. Many of these jihadi groups have arrived again Blessing by French forces, with Keita to restore aid to the defeat. But the jihadist threat has never been completely eradicated, and the country has most of the last ten years spent fighting in control to maintain safe conditions. The violence has only increased in recent times; It was sold in addition to the victims and violent, opposition leader and former presidential candidate, Soumaila Cisse kidnapped, (presumably jihadists) earlier this year installation. Protests months, the country was murky; The immediate trigger for the protests was the results in March to overturn the ruling of the Constitutional Court of preliminary parliamentary elections, handing out 10 additional posts for Keïta Party. It brought people to the streets in force, but the breaking point came on August 18, when an anointed army supreme quota, the National Commission for the salvation of men, arrested Keïta and various government ministers, and proclaim forced Keita his resignation on TV … while wearing a surgical mask (do not get more than 2020). It is unclear whether the protesters were from before in league with the rebels or the Supreme acted on their own initiative. Regardless of the junta appears to have the popular support of the people of Mali; given the real struggles of the country over the last ten years, which is not shocking. Less enamored with the military coup, the UN (that about 15,000 peacekeepers stationed in the country), France (with about 5,000 soldiers on the ground), the United States (which has close some bases drones stationed in Niger) African Union and the economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) -the latter has imposed restrictions on the border stopped financial relations with the country, Mali stopped the group membership and threatened sanctions over the ‘mutiny. Although there is not much sympathy for the people of Mali, the international players good reason to be concerned about recent developments in all its shortcomings (and there are many), Keïta to fight jihad in the region supported Western efforts it was, and the political chaos is following these groups are open to extend their grip on the country. ECOWAS should negotiate posted a led by former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan team with the coup leaders and understand the next steps; Failure of an agreement between the block could dented the credibility, but it is unlikely that the junta to offer much room for compromise on the contours of a democratic transition. This is in line with the preferences of leaders such as Alassane Ouattara and Alpha Condé, President of Côte d’Ivoire and Guinea, looking later disputed this third term year in office and would discourage a regional response similar hard addressed, preferably in their countries. What happens next: Call for a few international voices for the restoration of Keïta, as it is broad agreement that an ineffective leader in exchange for power, would worsen the chaos. One of the key protest leaders called a charismatic imam Mahmoud Dicko; There were rumblings he could use his popular support to win political power for me, but he does not seem interested in going this way. However, many believe its approval of the process will be crucial to their acceptance by the people of Mali, making it effectively “kingmaker”. The rebels initially proposed a three-year transition to civilian rule, a time frame that used to be those who want to see a democratic solution to the current crisis that troubled then, but still have ECOWAS request for a 1 year to accept max. continue negotiations. It is noteworthy that the coup leaders call for France and the support of the international community to continue the country through this transition and do not leave Mali in its time of crisis. And there are good reasons for the international community to do, as unpleasant as it may be the last time the current situation-a coup in the country in 2012 was there jihadists used the political chaos in the south to consolidate and expand their hold in the north of the country. If foreign powers leave, groups of Islamic Jihad (some of which are aligned with Al Qaeda and ISIS) would gain an even stronger position in the country and expand in the situation in the Sahel, like illegal drugs, weapons and creatures human, While France has asked Keita release (reports claim that he was allowed to go home), did not call for his return as president; Paris, stroll along the main concerns are the future of the welfare of the people of Mali and the continued fight against Islamic fanaticism. The only thing to say on a ZoomCall: When it comes to lack of global leadership and the G-Zero, we tend to wield great power rivalries (like the United States against China) or big macro issues (such as trade and Tech wars speeches). But Mali shows how the countries of the G-Zero affects the individual level. While the international community to help set the country, both for herself wants it seriously, and the threat of Islamic militants hit back, no one wants to have the resources or take primary responsibility for the situation to commit; 5000 French troops will not turn the tide against the jihadists or the right has to deliver the long-term stability of Mali itself. This means that Mali is placed alone. What not to say about them: I miss the days when coups dominated international headlines. simpler times.
Picture copyright by Baba Ahmed AP