Why Putin is unlikely to Belarus Lukashenko come rescue

Why Putin is unlikely to Belarus Lukashenko come rescue

Another friendly government in Moscow is in trouble. It is taken as Belarus protests over rigged presidential elections on August 9 onwards, many expect Russia’s Vladimir Putin to intervene to see. Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus President for the last 26 years certainly hopes Putin steps help him out of trouble. It would be better that the time to spend to pack. The Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 and the enthusiasm with which he jumped into the Syrian quagmire have given the impression in recent years that Putin has a very low threshold when it comes to interfering in other business to come. But Belarus is another story. Instead of trying to Georgia and Ukraine, it is instructive to look into the case of Armenia, where another pro-Moscow government in 2018. In contrast, fell as held in March their favorite candidates in power to make sure I chose Moscow on to negotiate to work with Armenia opposition political transition in the country; Russia must maintain its enormous influence on Armenian policy as a result and at a minimal cost. Putin is to come out the same in Belarus Gunning. It is made possible by the fact that the protests in Belarus are not anti-Russian or pro-Western, such as Ukraine have been protests, but in particular anti-Lukashenko. According to surveys of MGIMO University, as recently in November, almost 90% of Belarusians in friendly relations with Russia (10% preferred a “neutral” report, only 0.2% wanted relations as “hostile”) wanted to be. Putin wants to stay that way. would make the Russian troops through the moment to serve in the streets only enemies of the Belarusian people uninvited sending and Moscow have enough of those. Moscow said it would deploy troops to Belarus in case of foreign intervention, but that it should be read as an intention, the military to be used as a warning shot against NATO and the Western interference in orbit of Russia’s more power . It would support for Putin, in step Lukashenko and Russia in the sights of big E.U. and put the US sanctions would be a result of Moscow desperately to avoid, even before the crown began to push the world economy. At this point, the Russian economy is not to take the political and economic costs of further military adventurism in the Constitution. If Lukashenko could more have a very loyal and competent Russian allies operating from Minsk, Putin tried to intervene decisively. But that ship has sailed. At this point, the smart money is to ensure working conditions of Russia behind the scenes on a mediated political transition, it is holding its privileged position with the Belarusian government, no matter who comes out of the political struggle. Of course, just because that’s preferred outcome of Moscow, this is not playing Russia approved the political transition. It ‘possible that a transfer of power, despite the efforts of Russia come to check the result, in which case any government in Minsk and Brussels to Moscow, which overturns a worst case scenario for Putin could. E ‘can also hold Lukashenko to power, thus creating long remain faithful, leading to its border with Russia to Venezuela this situation, a result that would be so tragic as it would be in the security services of Russia, in the past support of Venezuela Nicol├ís Maduro Given ironic. But as protests intensify, these two hits results. The blow only longer is that the Russian military in the step. This appears in the August 31, 2020 issue of time.
Picture copyright by Mikhail Klimentyev-Sputnik / AFP / Getty Images

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