Europe is close to the edge of a second wave of COVID-19 will be his new job containment strategy?

If European governments have begun difficult to stop lockdowns crown in May and June, officials stressed that they would only keep easing measures while new infection numbers have remained low. But daily number of cases appear in several Western European countries started again. recorded the highest daily number of new cases on Thursday, France and Germany, both in three months and infections increasing rapidly in Spain and the Netherlands, among others. Health experts around the brood data now warn that the edge of a second wave of COVID-19 is Europe unless governments spend their promise could keep Sharpen rules when infections begin to peak. Many European governments now provide a new strategy that included the virus: restrictions localized in certain areas for the introduction where outbreaks are in an effort to avoid a return to the big national lockdowns that their economy devastated spring. But, like people, have started again with friends to socialize after difficult months isolated in spending interior, experts are concerned that social fatigue removal could be setting makes it more difficult to get people to follow the new restrictions and new outbreaks make potentially dangerous. “Every time you start to lock release measures interact and more people start to see new cases,” says Nathalie MacDermott, a clinical professor of infectious diseases at King’s College London. “The question is whether you are able to monitor and prevent an increase.” While new cases every day several times lower during the European summit in March and April, one thing that we know were COVID-19 is that they get exponentially out of control if allowed to propagate. Now all eyes are on Europe to see, it can be prevented if it does not happen. Where increasing cases? In recent weeks there has been in Spain, Iceland, Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg, and gradually increasing in France, Germany and Italy were sharp upticks. One of the most affected at the moment is Spain, reported last week, more than 16,000 cases, compared to 2,800 a week in early July. About two-thirds of cases during the week ending August 4 confirmed were concentrated in the northern regions of Catalonia and Aragon, also hard hit with Madrid. Belgium also saw a new peak, with confirmed cases across the country in the week to August doubling 1. The virus spreads rapidly in the Balkans, which is largely avoided hard hit by the first wave of the pandemic, but now a little ‘head to see the greatest number of cases of the continent. What caused the rise? There has never vary place only one reason for an outbreak and contributing factors of place, but experts say that most of Western Europe have at least one thing in common: The tension of their economies with governments reopened before the virus at fairly low levels where reduced population. Although most European countries their lockdowns were easing in June, there was no community transmission occurs almost everywhere, for a E.U. The risk assessment published in early July. This means that the virus was so widespread that it was for most of the authorities constantly determine the source of any infection impossible. However, continuing daily cases falling in many places, so the government decided to eliminate some restrictions. That was a bad calculation of the eyes of some experts. “Many countries are now open, a return of cases, especially with regard to those who have opened before having infection rates at very low levels,” says Professor Martin McKee, who specializes in European public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. It is slightly different than the first wave? An important difference is that while the number of cases will start to increase, remain low on the day of death. Deaths during the first wave of past events delayed by several weeks pandemic because the time virus can take, but epidemiologists say that right now, the majority of new cases in Europe appear to be among young people who are less likely to die the virus, unlike the first wave, when many older people have been infected. Even if the low death rate may seem like good news, an increase in cases in young people is likely to lead the line for all the problems. Young people who are infected with the virus, experts say, is to the population necessarily spread to other parts of driving the number of cases and when it finally reaches the mortality rate of vulnerable people. “It ‘difficult, the virus only in the younger part of the population to abstain,” says virologist Steven Van Gucht, the Belgian government adviser and spokesman. “There will be consequences.” The tourism has caused cases go up? Spain is a good example, it may be partly responsible, such as tourism for a spike in cases crown. It ‘was one of the worst affected countries in Europe the first wave, but in June has had cases, finally, a day reduced to 400 by 8000 every day, in early April. In response, he started to raise his three months early stages nationwide lockdown, bars, clubs and hotels. to open the move again, it was struggling companies-particularly appreciated the tourism industry in Spain, about 14% of the country’s GDP. The end of June opened its borders Spain for European tourists, without being found after arrival in quarantine, and gradually the beaches and hotels began to fill. But since early July he had begun to rise again cases. In the two weeks until August 5, Marbella a popular tourist destination on the Costa del Sol-registered 157 new cases COVID after a 11-day period in July when no cases were ever recorded. “Maybe the motivation should be promoted in the tourism sector, can get in the way of Spain tried to contain the virus,” says MacDermott, of King’s College London. “The number of people who want to travel on vacation, it is certainly a risk for increasing a rapid increase because you have a greater chance of mixing the different populations.” What other factors are to blame? The opening of nightclubs and bars seem to be a big one. Outbreaks of the virus in France, Switzerland and Spain were all open, followed again nightlife, despite new social distancing rules. New social distancing club rules are good in theory, but “when introducing alcohol or other substances that alter the judgment of a situation, of course, the rules of human social distancing as a result simply will not happen,” says MacDermott. After a flood of clubs in Spain linked outbreaks, spread a government spokesman as “behavior in nightclubs,” especially among young people. Another factor in the outbreaks was poor work practices. seasonal agricultural workers who move from one place to another, forced to stay in an accommodation close to make difficult social distancing, were identified as a major carrier in the new Spanish outbreak. Even in the U. K., an increase in cases was that of unscrupulous textile factories in the city of Leicester people associated protocols then use the virus packed house housed diffusion families ensures greater speed in violation of social distancing. How are the leaders in Europe increased cases react? In Europe they call national governments lockdowns blunt instrument to selectively remove smaller sizes in some local areas. “What we have to avoid, in particular, is a general block,” said French Prime Minister Jean Castex the newspaper Nice-Matin in late July. “Such action cuts off the spread of the epidemic, of course, but it is disastrous for the economy and society, and for the mental health of some of our fellow citizens.” Experts agree that the localized limitations when you set correctly, are the best way that shocks Europe to combat currently sees. “This is the ideal approach,” says MacDermott. “It is not to give a foothold for the virus.” In many places throughout Europe is being implemented in practice. In the UK. Leicester City, the striking officers responded to the outbreak of a city level block would be a model government officials said elsewhere, if necessary followed. And on Wednesday, the Scottish government announced to close shops and restaurants in the city of Aberdeen and force in response to a growing number of cases, people shrink the journey. In Catalonia, the epicenter of the Spanish outbreak, local officials have pushed in about 4 million people in Barcelona and the surrounding area to impose even hesitate to stay another legally binding Lockdown. “It ‘s very important to respect these measures now, is the best way to avoid a blockage,” said Alba Verges, Catalonia Minister of Health, announcing the request. “No one wants full maternity home.” What lessons can learn the rest of the world? Apart governments do not impose on their open economies too quickly against infections under control, epidemiologists say one clear lesson from Europe is that the country-and-trace programs tests are usually the best to keep the number of viruses to be low the most effective. Italy, one of the countries most affected in the first wave of the pandemic in Europe has made the case daily rate per capita, one of the lowest levels of the continent recently held. “Italy has truly free rein its own monitoring systems, and it looks like things under control to manage,” says McKee. And although new cases a day in Germany slowly rise, experts are confident that the sophisticated tracking system will keep a lid virus. “Germany is very active, and I think probably avoid a second wave,” says MacDermott. As well as an important role international travel the virus from Wuhan, China has played in the transmission where it was discovered, to all corners of the world, experts say that countries return with a very limited number of cases, closely arrivals monitoring of foreign take on new meaning. In Europe, which has difficulties because of the Schengen area, which allows you to travel without borders in much of continental Europe, making it difficult to know exactly national officials, who in their country and where they come from. In May E.U. Officials have issued a number of guidelines in the hope of every country in contact-tracing applications to make interoperable so, for example, someone in France, it would be reported, he came in contact with a visitor from Spain when Spanish for COVID- 19 tested positive on their return home. But the system has yet to be fully tested, and observers are concerned that loopholes could lead to the virus to get a foothold. The good news is that social distancing strategy targeted restrictions reintroduction seems to work. In Belgium cases every day have begun falling again after new rules have been imposed. “It ‘s very important that we hold the virus in its early stage, otherwise we have exactly the same problem as before,” said advisor to the Belgian Government Van Gucht. “The sudden takeoff, very aggressive.” “The great danger is that people are fed with Crown [virus],” he adds. “This is quite understandable, because I feel the same. The problem is that we can forget about the virus, but the virus will not forget us.”
Picture copyright by NurPhoto via Getty Images-Urbanandsport / NurPhoto