The United States officially the curve with the worst day of the Crown pandemic will not flattened, but

On April 7, less than a month after reports of COVID-19 began to rise dramatically in the United States, the rate of new infections peaked on average 31.630 new cases per day, this means about 100,000 Americans to 10, every day have been tested positive. For months, this figure stood as the worst day in the spread of the pandemic at the national level. Until now. The latest data show that on Tuesday and Wednesday this week has passed (June 23-June 24) United States, that the high water, with more than 31,700 infections a day. The state of the pandemic in this country is officially worse than ever. What is worrying especially for this trend that the country was as a whole on track by the end of May (as opposed to a number of states such as North Carolina, which is never flat or showed of course extended signs), even if it was not, not completely out of the woods. The fact that all these positive signals in the inclined polarity, suggesting that any combination of factors that led to this rebirth, one thing is clear: the nation does not need to adapt to changing circumstances. The assignment of cause and effect of peaks and valleys in a record as complex as this is a dangerous business. But, as my colleague Tara and I read last week reported a greater availability of tests is very unlikely to explain the increase in cases. And you can not ignore the fact that many states have begun public places around cautiously Memorial Day to open about two weeks, took off the numbers in the United States. It is about 19-COVID typical incubation period. The virus has also hit asymmetrically the country to move from urban areas densely populated in the less densely populated regions, which requires a rapid change in public interventions for combat. Crunch the numbers might reasonably ask why we did not notice yesterday, since the peak value was 2 days before. The response includes only a smidgeon of mathematics. We will come together. Each evening has released a Johns Hopkins University team daily data on the number of COVID-19 cases (and deaths resulting) ,, Government of the United States national and global levels by the US-district. As you can see from the gray bar in the table above, these numbers when the day-to-day can vary (as opposed to cumulatively against) a lot graphically represented, for seemingly arbitrary reasons. The numbers are usually higher on Friday than at the beginning of the week, for example, they can easily make the difficult tendency to read on a specific day when you are not using the data to help in the context weeks together. What most of the publications (including time) reported in a date than seven days has been done are calculated on average, the substance, the curve to smooth this context, immerse the graph. We use what is called “centered” moving average, every day value is the average of the day and the last three days and three days. There is a significant disadvantage of this approach: the last days have seven points sample data, because, like you, we can not see into the future. For the day, this method uses an average of the last three days, the current day and how many days to follow (two, one or none). But this is a worthy trade-off for the fact that a centered average traces with the shows raw data for a total of more closely, a more precise picture. So much is clear from this comparison, the same data above is an average of the previous week (blue) conducted (green), on average, over the course of the following week and the moving average centered this time used (red): This can seem pedantic, but is located in the heart of how difficult it can be to accurately report the size of the 19-COVID crisis. Based on only the non-daily mean values, the two worst days in April, and this may be true for some time. And while today’s media summit centers on June 23, when we checked yesterday, with a data point less, on June 23 was a shade below the previous peak. Within a few days we will be able to say with certainty how much worse we are now than we were when things looked most bleak before.
Picture copyright by Win McNamee-Getty Images / TIME illustration