That election of Poland might mean for the future of Europe

That election of Poland might mean for the future of Europe

to choose Poland’s voters head to the polls on June 28 for their next president, a largely ceremonial position but with decisive power to veto laws. If no candidate gets more than 50% of the votes, a second round will be held on July 12, conservative in office Andrzej Duda, who was allied with the law ruling and Justice Party (Pi) the clear favorite – but last month, the liberal Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski of the civic platform opposition center-right party, ruled 2007-2015 who fired in the polls. Polish elections are available down choice between the ruling party of the growing trend toward autocracy or that haunts democracy, says Piotr Buras, Warschaueren Head of the European Council on Foreign Relations. It is a fight that with the right leader populist rise in recent years in Europe plays out. “The future of Poland will soon define the strength to confront questions about you in Europe,” he says. How he had COVID-19 influences the choice? The election was originally scheduled for May 10, but to go four days and under much political wrangling it has been postponed due to the 19-COVID epidemic. The Law and Justice Party, had insisted that the election went ahead as planned and Duda was on a clear path to victory. But the opposition argues that it was impossible to lead a normal election on public health and logistical reasons. “Pi of the feeling that if they had waited more would be the chances of winning get slim and slender Duda,” says Buras. In early May saw Poland has reached about 300 400 infections a day, for a total of 3,000 cases and 1,400 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University. Poland blocking rules eased in May, so that people vote in person. (Post votes are available on request). Who leads in the polls? If the campaign in February, Trzaskowski, the son has started a jazz musician who was not even on the ballot. The election delay has allowed his party to replace their candidate to fight Malgorzata Kidawa-Blonska, whose support had dropped to single digits after a lackluster campaign. The pro-European mayor of Warsaw has launched his campaign on May 15, pledging to “fight for a strong state to fight for democracy.” Polls in April Duda expected a comfortable victory in the first round with over 50% of the votes would win. But a poll in June of the Kantar data the company has found its support had dropped to 38%, while Trzaskowski has reached 27%, 9% from May If the two eventually lost in a runoff against Duda Warschaueren Mayor it is expected, the survey said. “It ‘been a very happy situation for the opposition that they had to change at this point candidates. And now the race will be very close – from 200 to 300,000 votes could be decisive,” said Buras. Why did President Andrzej Duda meeting with Donald Trump before the election? The change has prompted Duda to do everything possible to strengthen his chances of re-election, for example, is its close relationship with Washington on display. On June 24, he attended President Donald Trump first foreign leader to meet President of the United States from February for discussions focused on security cooperation. The two leaders met one on one at least five times, including three times in the White House. Trump praised Duda as “exemplary allies” and Duda also in 2018 offered a “Fort Trump” to create, which would take US troops in Poland. (This plan was not implemented.) In a press conference on June 24 Duda promised “building a strong alliance” with the United States, while Trump said he believes Duda will be at “successful elections”. the world think “The people of Poland, from him. I do not think he needs my help,” the president said. Duda visit aimed “Law and Justice campaign strategy to fight the opposition narrative that the international Poland was isolated from the ruling party. They want to show that Poland is a player on the world stage and close to the United States, which is seen as military and guarantor of the country’s key security, “says Aleks Szczerbiak, professor of politics and European Studies at the University of Sussex, Buras But he does not believe the visit Duda votes they get a lot more. “This is just a confirmation that their candidate a good friend of America,” he says. How did the LGBTQ rights recognized in the elections? As Duda battles campaign that hardline rhetoric, branding LGBTQ rights increased an “ideology” worse than communism. Duda introduced in 2019 in the country firmly Catholic, the majority of people (66%) opposes same-sex marriage, according to a survey by CBOS research center in July for a “family card” among his nomination earlier this month, including the votes do not allow gay couples to marry or adopt children and to prohibit the teaching of LGBTQ issues in schools. It ‘also in schools and public institutions, “the spread of LGBT ideology prohibits” remember controversial 2013 law in Russia “gay propaganda”. If a candidate Trzaskowski was “a priority in the campaign, the issue of LGBTQ rights was,” Szczerbiak said. “They were followers in small cities and rural areas, raising the stakes for these voters and Trzaskowski presented as a radical mobilization,” he says. “Duda news is that if you do not vote for me, you can have a cultural Armageddon,” says Buras. Trzaskowski – a major supporter of LGBTQ rights – has accused the president of fuel hatred. In February 2019, hee signed an explanation for donor support of the LGBTQ community a number of outlined measures, including opening classes against discrimination in all Warschaueren schools and the need for protection for those who claim to begin. This led to a reaction from PiS. A high Pi officials posted a tweet with a rainbow flag next to the name of Warschaueren mayor, saying that he had “monitoring.” The Chairman of the Executive Committee of the PiS presented the election as a choice between “red and white Poland represented by the current president and a rainbow in Poland”, in an interview with Polish Radio in May. The media came in. The pro-government weekly magazine, Sieci, on the cover Trzaskowski a rainbow bracelet, entitled “extremist candidates” in early June. to have, but apparently failed, said Szczerbiak. Last week “Pi has put the issue into the background because they were not mobilized, is not to push the edge Trzaskowski became the successor,” he says. What are the main issues at stake? As a parliamentary majority in 2015 to win, has the Law and Justice party able to freely deploy its conservative agenda, with the support Duda. made similar to the seizure of power by Viktor Orban nationalist party Fidesz in Hungary, PiS took control of basic liberal institutions such as an independent judiciary and free press, as more and more to define national identity in terms of ethnicity and religion and demonize opponents. The government has also targeted campaign groups that work on women, LGBTQ immigrants and guaranteed rights. “What is at stake in this election is whether PiS can continue with their status radical transformation,” Szczerbiak said. would act as the governance capacity of the party seriously hamper the party to govern effectively a presidential veto, Duda defeat required three-fifths majority legislative missing tip over. Duda reelection could use his veto powers to enable and push controversial judicial reforms, including a new law that would allow courts dissident to face punishment. The reform would allow Pi essentially “get rid of judges to get that with the government and its course, does not agree is illiberal,” says Buras. The EU strongly condemns the movement with their values ​​and transparency Commissioner does not consider the reform of the “destruction” in February and even took legal action against Duda government for the violation of her in the month of October 2019 but PiS calling it tries to do that, effective judicial system and eradicate minded communist era. Based on the deliberations of E.U. against Poland Trazkowski said that his country “has ceased to be a leader” in Europe. “Mobilizing the government to give up the conflict with the European institutions and the majority of Member States to the rule of law and the ideological disputes.” His campaign promises to whether Duda wins, the ruling party “is rooted in state structures and a device to get,” says Buras. The Polish election is the site of two battles; PiS against authoritarian ambitions and “the future of the European project, in which democracy is in danger,” says Save. And what prevails Buras says, is a “whole of Europe are important.”
Picture copyright by Artur Widak -NurPhoto via Getty Images

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