In his ongoing campaign to minimize the pandemic Crown in the United States, the administration announced Trump insists that while cases to rocket national level, the number of daily deaths remains low relative to the outbreak earlier this ‘year. “In a way, our big test of success means of false information have everything they want CASES:” President Donald Trump tweeted about the weekend. “It goes down. Meanwhile, the deaths and the significant mortality” It ‘s true that deaths tend to cause COVID-19 are down, they also increase as cases and hospital admissions. However, infectious disease experts say it is too early to lower mortality celebrate in recent weeks have seen. In part, that’s because it takes days, weeks or even months are infected for a person to get sick and die COVID-19 On average, it takes five days for a person to develop symptoms after infection, although it can take as two weeks, sometimes longer. In most cases it takes longer for people seriously ill, so that they will have to be hospitalized. It could then take days or weeks before he died. (Many people, of course, experience no or only mild symptoms and do not require hospitalization.) The recent increase COVID-19 cases in states like Arizona, Florida and Texas was found in late May for the first time. And ‘likely to say too early to be sure whether the pump will lead to a spike in deaths. But at least in one state, Texas, there are already a big warning signs that more deaths are: hospital admissions are Spiking, which means that many people are getting seriously ill. And in New York, which was the worst affected state, before the virus subsided there, dead zurückzublieb significantly behind admissions: In Texas, hospital already increasing rapidly day by day. Deaths rise slowly, but now for visas, on the basis of trends elsewhere, such as in New York, probably skip soon: “There are many warning signs,” says Alison Hill, an infectious disease modelers at Harvard University. “The cases are treated quickly a lot. The proportion of tests that are carried out are positive again for COVID actually get very high. These are all warning signs that in a few weeks we’ll probably get a lot of people in the hospital, and a lot of missing people. ” Even when the dead begin Spike, we can not know now, because of a delay in processing and sick died. Doctors often have to wait for the test results, and it takes time to fill out death certificates. death ratio can vary significantly also the speed with which states. Deaths can also cause delay being tested in the first place forever. The average age of persons tested positive has with COVID-19, in part due to increased testing fell, and partly because some stores were still open once the young people wear, how many restaurants and bars. Younger patients are less likely to experience the worst symptoms or die from the disease. And early in the pandemic, many of the dead were centered in long-term care facilities that have improved, residents can be protected over time. However, Hill said that young people have the virus can spread elderly or other contract of vulnerable people, possibly leading to more deaths on the road. “Not only do I think this will be limited to 20 years of age,” he says. “The population is simply not so isolated.” Infectious disease experts have also raised other theories that could explain the drop in deaths. Hospitals can major in COVID-19 treatment have improved, thanks to a combination of research and experience with what has been a confusing virus. It can be patient, even more aware of the risk of the disease compared to the beginning of the pandemic, which means you can go to the hospital sooner than before. Also, any chance that the virus has mutated into a form having less severe. But Hill said that the “very slow virus” so far has evolved, and see no convincing evidence that has become less virulent. And that data can fall behind reality, he says, it is reason to be more cautious, no premature celebration. “You really need to do everything possible to stop the spread now because starting from the time we see hospitalizations and deaths increase, is a bit ‘too late,” he says. Correction, July 7 graph of Texas in the original version of this story incorrectly showed cumulative deaths. It ‘been updated to show the dead a day.
Yes, COVID-19 deaths are down. But there are worrying signs of increased Spike Ahead
