No COVID-19 models are perfect, but some are useful

The world crown pandemic has focused on scientific modeling renewed interest and focus has led, as we try to get a handle on what the future will bring, how many people get sick and die, what will be the economic impact and what actions they should take politicians, but confusion abounds on what these “models”, they say, and how to bring their visions, often seemingly contradictory line of the future. The recent political attacks on these models reflect a lack of understanding about what are models of how they work, and their usefulness and limitations. Conservative Fox News commentator Laura Ingraham Show attacked patterns on it. Senator John Cornyn, Republican of Texas tweeted “After # 19 COVID-crisis passes, we could make a good faith discussion of the use and abuse of haben, Modellierung ‘predict the future?” All models are all around us. Without knowing it, we will use all the models, all the time trying to understand the results of complex situations. Decisions as your monthly salary or Save for retirement financial models must spend. The car you drive and the toaster in the kitchen designed with engineering models both. Advertisers machen of consumer behavior patterns, preferences and consumption of media during the advertising planning and buying. These models depend on science, but also on the behavior and actions that are much less predictable human. Even a bran muffin recipe is a model and use a good example of the type of models without thinking about it every day. The chefs serve centuries recipe template Creating the knowledge of the chemical behavior of different ingredients to their personal experiences of what they hope is a delicious bran muffin. But if the “bran muffin pattern” actually produced a good muffin or a burnt hockey puck depends not only on the formulation, but by factors completely outside the control of the designer recipe. If your oven to 400 ° C, it is heated to 350 °? Are you confused for a spoonful of soda teaspoon salt to cook? Want to sleep and burn releasing the muffins? If the recipe taste manufacturers their own ideas? Because of these uncertainties and unknown, scientists working with models do not look for “forecasts” -rather results we called “projections” or “scenarios.” A prediction involves a greater accuracy and reliability than many models. repeat the classic aphorism for all these reasons, many scientists “All models are wrong, but some are useful”, we think that models are only as good as our understanding of scientific knowledge that goes into it. But useful models help to understand how science and human decisions interact, provide valuable insights policies. Think of human induced climate change: base running the world on some of komplexesten models of some of the fastest computers Projections of climate change. The climate is the most complicated biogeophysical system on the planet, influenced by factors such as varying the output of the sun and the tilt of the earth; The composition of the atmosphere; the behavior of the winds, clouds and ocean currents; The interactions between the oceans, land and atmosphere; and behavior of plants and animals. Despite this complexity, global climate models are remarkably accurate can reproduce enormous detail the past and present climate behavior. But their ability to generate accurate predictions depends on getting the right not only of science, but on assumptions regarding the future behavior of politicians and individuals; the new role technology can play in changing greenhouse gas emissions; and the impact of investment decisions, energy policy and land use. We know that people are already influencing and changing the climate, but the wide range of climate predictions for the future depends largely on the political and social uncertainties, not scientific ones. Scientists are now building models to try to understand the way the pandemic and project. How many people get sick or die? What are the consequences for society and the economy? How different public policies, are medical decisions and personal choices affect the results? The models continue to improve based on our developing scientific understanding of the infectivity of the virus, the survival rate of the virus in different environments, individual responses to infection, the role of pre-existing conditions, the effectiveness of medical interventions, and more, less predictable inputs are those who are trying to understand the behavior of individuals: Questions like staying at home or going; We are wearing masks, social distancing and we receive when we go out, or ignore the doctor and to accelerate the “reopening” of the economy. The takeaway here is that we do not reject a model, just because it offers a very different picture of the future as one another. Do not look at the different projections from these models and include models are bad. These models are crucial to help us take the most effective measures to explore, to minimize what concerns us: death, disease and an economy damaged. The final results of the pandemic will depend on how we make projections of the models and change our behavior, we can avoid the bad Futures see but strongly hope to avoid.
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